By
Dr. G. Rauf Roashan
Abstract:
Hardly out of the quagmire of
extremism and hardly recovering from having been tricked to
serve as the haven for terror groups, Afghanistan today seems
like a labyrinth full of hopes, uncertainties and problems.
Prevailing conditions in Afghanistan make her an excellent
specimen for a variety of social and political studies where
past theories and hypotheses could be tested and retested and
new discoveries could be made. It can become a great sample for
the study of national and international politics in this dawn of
the 21st century. It could define or redefine
international interests and relations in a world that is sharply
divided between the haves and the have-nots. Here you could
experience all forms of neocolonial trends, military and
otherwise, and economic competition between and among regional
and world economic powers. Here you could observe intrigue,
local, regional and international for grasping of power and
expanding areas of influence. It is in that context that this
paper is laying out a frame of the present conditions and trends
in Afghanistan today that may affect its tomorrow.
Hardly out of the quagmire
of extremism and hardly recovering from having been tricked to
serve as the haven for terror groups, Afghanistan today seems
like a labyrinth full of hopes, uncertainties and problems.
Prevailing conditions in Afghanistan make her an excellent
specimen for a variety of social and political studies where
past theories and hypotheses could be tested and retested and
new discoveries could be made. It can become a great sample for
the study of national and international politics in this dawn of
the 21st century. It could define or redefine
international interests and relations in a world that is sharply
divided between the haves and the have-nots. Here you could
experience all forms of neocolonial trends, military and
otherwise, and economic competition between and among regional
and world economic powers. Here you could observe intrigue,
local, regional and international for grasping of power and
expanding areas of influence. It is in that context that the
following fields become acutely worthy of mention and study:
Governance:
The Bonn agreement under the influence of the United Nations and
the United States, with further pressure by the prevailing
Afghan military power of the day namely the Northern Alliance,
laid a loose foundation for establishment of a semblance of
governance in Afghanistan. Many, welcomed the move as a first
step, not democratic by any stretch of imagination, but taken in
a long time in the right direction. Thus Afghans became hopeful
that first an Interim Administration and later a Transitional
Government in about six months and an elected one in another 18
months will bring a much needed centralized government structure
in the country, ridding it from warlordism and the rule of the
gun.
The Interim
Administration: In its first half of
the proposed term of reference, the Interim Administration was
able to reclaim Afghanistan’s international standing, build
bridges with foreign countries and the United Nations, ask for
huge amounts of aid for the reparation of the country and
receive nominal assistance. It was able to pacify fears by
Afghanistan’s neighbors and lay the ground for future economic
relationships with them also opening the doors that were shut
because of the Taleban policies to the extension of the much
sought central Asian gas pipeline from Turkmenistan to the
subcontinent of India. Some Afghan embassies in foreign
countries became reactivated and Afghanistan gained recognition
in international gatherings.
But in the home front the Administration
has not been able to achieve a great lot. The divide between
south and north seems to have remained un-patched. National
reconciliation still remains as one of the main objectives in
acquiring of a unity among Afghan factions and ethnic groupings.
The Loya Jirga is expected to realize this objective. . For the
latter purpose, the Interim Administration welcomed the person
of the former King of Afghanistan who has been assigned the role
of the leader to open the Jirga. It is hoped that the Jirga be
opened on June 10, 2002
The routine of a national government has
not been fully established and many of the ministries work with
partial staff and budget. None of their plans and or projects
have firmly been worked out or started or revived. Little work
that goes into social services such as education and health is
mostly provided by either NGOs or friendly countries’
development organizations. It seems that the Interim
Administration has a lot of unfinished business and when it runs
into the next phase of the Bonn schedule it will find itself
still short of having accomplished the basics.
Security:
Security worsened a bit under the new administration. Even in
areas where the peacekeeping forces and US Military are present
and active security has been repeatedly breached. In areas
where the Interim Authority’s personnel are in charge, security
seems to have worsened to a greater degree. Ethnic differences
and vengeance have caused continuation of the element of fear
under which the Afghan nation has lived for the past quarter of
a century. Excesses have also been reported in the hands of the
military that is dominated presently by elements of the Northern
Alliance.
Foreign Troops:
Presently two groups of foreign troops operate in Afghanistan.
The International Peace Keeping and Assistance Force and of
course, the US troops still engaged in what they call their war
against terrorists. The Interim Administration would want for
the international peace keeping force to be expanded in size,
coverage inside the country beyond Kabul, and duration of
service. However, there has been no agreement on this issue so
far. As to the operation of the US forces inside Afghanistan
there is little information as to how long they would stay.
Logically, it was thought that as soon as the al-Qaida
organization is dismantled and its leaders arrested the
objective of the American military operation in Afghanistan
would end. However, it is claimed that al-Qaida has still not
been completely wiped out and its leader Osama’s whereabouts are
unknown. There is little proof though that al-Qaida network
exists or is operative in Afghanistan. The superior American
military strategy coupled with a profound dislike of the al-Qaida
establishment by ordinary Afghans would not allow the
organization to exist in Afghanistan or to regroup or start
operation again. But Osama and his former host Mulla Omar both
have evaded capture and it is not unlikely that extremist
elements in Afghanistan and or Pakistan would have given them
sanctuary. In any case the present status favors continued stay
of the American troops in Afghanistan, a condition that is very
much liked by Washington. This is because many people speculate
that the US wants to continue its military presence in the
South-Asia nation indefinitely.
But foreign troops anywhere and especially
in a country like Afghanistan would sooner or later face
increasing opposition by nationalistic elements. Afghans are
famous for their intolerance of foreign troops. If the US
objective dictates a longer stay in Afghanistan, then it must
play its cards cautiously and very differently than other forces
that unsuccessfully had ventured the same objectives.
The Need for a National
Army: This need is still there. It
is a huge task to build a national army in Afghanistan given the
present military power structure of the warlords and factions.
Solving the political hurdles in this regard by itself is a
great challenge. Add to it the issue of the need for money and
manpower. Recently the international peace keeping forces were
able to train 600 Afghan troops as a presidential guard and as a
nucleus of the national army. Compare this number with the
20,000 troops only belonging to warlord Ismail Khan, the
governor of the western province of Heart. Most recent based on
the news pertaining to the visit by the US Secretary of Defense
to Afghanistan last Saturday and his discussions, he has
promised that soon the US would be able to release funds for
training of a national army for Afghanistan. Karzai the leader
of the Interim Authority was quick to welcome the statement.
Internal Politics:
One of the gravest issues facing Afghanistan today is dealing
with a variety of local and regional self appointed leaders and
those who possess arms in great quantities. Factional politics
and ethnic rivalries are also there to deal with. Among the
important personalities engaged actively in Afghan politics one
can mention the following:
- Hamid
Karzai, Head of the Interim Authority
- Abdul Rashid
Dostum, a man who wears many hats within and without the
Interim Authority. He is governor of Mazar-e-Shairf, Deputy
Minister of Defense and Special Envoy of the Authority in the
north.
- Mohammad
Ismail Khan, governor of the western province of Herat.
- Gul Agha
Sherzai, governor of Kandahar.
- Burhanuddin
Rabbani, Head of the Jamiat-e-Islami party who is reportedly
planning to launch a new party and call it the United Front.
- Abdullah,
member of the Jamiat Party and minister of foreign affairs of
the Interim Authority.
- Mohammad
Yonus Qanooni, member of the Jamiat Party and minister of
interior in the Interim Authority.
- Mohammd
Qasim Fahim, member of the Jamiat Party and minister of
defense in the Interim Authority.
- Mohammad
Zahir Shah, the former King of Afghanistan, presently in Kabul
awaiting to open the Afghan Loya Jirga in June this year.
- A number of
party chiefs and Mujadideen elements such as Gulbuddin
Hikmatyar, Head of the Islamic Party and Abdul Rassul Sayaf,
and Sibghatullah Mujadeddi heads of their minor parties which
operated during the decade of war with the Soviet Union. Add
to this list a number of other office hopefuls such as Mustafa
the grandson and Mirweis the son of the former King and his
son-in-law Abdul Wali. Other elements in the fringes are the
Masoud brothers Wali and Zia and some former Afghan government
officials in and around the country and even in the West and
Australia.
A psychological study of these
personalities with their personal, faction and ethnic
aspirations would render a great challenge to the researcher of
Afghan politics and those interested in the future of
Afghanistan. For example, recently Dostum is reported to have
referred to the issue that he is considering himself no more as
a wartime leader, but one who is interested in serving northern
Afghanistan as a leader in peace. These shifts of positions and
attitudes are bound to affect internal politics of the country.
The Loya Jirga:
Perhaps many, among the Afghan nation and outside, await the
convening of the Loya Jirga as well as its decisions regarding
the future of Afghanistan. If the Bonn meeting were considered
as the launching pad for a new era in post-Taleban Afghanistan,
then the Loya Jirga is expected to serve as the most important
step in determining the choice of peace over war for the Afghan
nation. However, for the Jirga to be successful and truly
representative, it needs to be freed from influences of people,
personalities, factions, ethnic interests and international
designs. It is not enough to state that the Loya Jirga
preparation committee established by the United Nations has
worked all the details flawlessly. It has to be proven that
that is the case. Furthermore, the process of choosing or
electing of its members should leave no place for criticism.
And more importantly, its agenda should be worked out in detail
and shared with the public ahead of time for comments and
consideration. The agenda should include seeking of the
approval of the Jirga for both its procedures as well as the
topics of its deliberations. Representatives to the Jirga should
be required to have at least basic education and their hands
should have not been tainted with the blood of the innocent.
They should pledge beforehand loyalty to the country, and for
the purposes of the Jirga, promise not to further the agenda of
their political parties or groupings but consider the lofty
ideals of the Afghan nation as a whole. And the former King, as
the chairperson of the Jirga should not only open it, but should
stay on to preside over it. He should take a more active role in
this Jirga than he has ever had in the affairs of the country.
He should promise to stand by his word that he is there to serve
the country and the cause of Afghanistan and should truly
refrain from seeking a revival of the monarchical system.
Reconstruction:
Post-Taleban Afghanistan inadvertently is linked to one of the
great reconstruction challenges that have ever confronted the
Afghan nation. This time around, there have been sympathetic
voices and pledges of help from the international community.
Afghanistan’s reconstruction, therefore, is of interest to many
groups. Investors, traders, industrialists, bankers, sellers,
economic researchers and all others involved directly or
indirectly in businesses and commercial dealings would like to
claim a slice of the profits accruable from the process of
development in Afghanistan. Others interested in social
services such as health and education development and research
would like to plan on the almost clean planning slate of the
country for these services or to benefit from research that
would be required to be carried out in these fields. NGOs,
friendly countries’ development assistance agencies, the United
Nations system as a whole and its specialized agencies such as
the WHO, FAO, ITU, UNICEF, UNESCO, ILO, UNDP, UNEP, UNFPA
and the like would be directly involved in many of the
developmental projects. There would be the need for a
coordinating body either at the national or United Nations
levels. The planning and implementation capacity at the
national level would have to be developed and strengthened. It
should be assured that all funds allocated for the
reconstruction, must be spent on reconstruction along.
It is under
these situations that an Afghanistan for tomorrow is expected to
emerge. It is hoped that that Afghanistan be a country at peace
with itself and with the world at large. And it is hoped that
that Afghanistan would be a prosperous country.