When the Honeymoon is Over

November 23, 2001

By:           Dr. G. Rauf Roashan

Abstract:  With the complete downfall of the Taleban, the honeymoon with their defeat will soon be over.  However, problems of the nation may not only linger on but would become severe if preventive measures are not taken at this time.  There is a dire need for maintaining of peace, security, the rule of law and prevention of excesses against human rights.  Unfortunately reports from Afghanistan speak of all of these plus vengeance killings, rapes, looting, highway robberies, extractions etc.  Hastening of the diplomatic efforts for the establishment of a sound transitional government of the choice of the nation as well as establishment of an international peacekeeping force under the auspices of the United Nations are the most urgent steps required at this time. Afghan problem is a complex political, social and economic issue and requires an all out effort to tackle. 

Music and hope replaced tyranny as Taleban were driven out from many cities and townships in Afghanistan. Afghan women newscasters sat behind their desks to air live TV programs.  Music shops and entertainment facilities opened in Herat, Mazar and Kabul. A new era of freedom from the tyrannical rule of Taleban began.  Schools in Mazar opened and admitted girls.  Women started showing up their faces in public without wearing the compulsory burqas.  The victorious Northern Alliance troops who defeated Taleban with the help of the most advanced aerial support provided by the United States war technology entered cities and townships with laughter and dancing.  Waving their machineguns, some of them sought old enemies for taking revenge.  The leader of the Northern Alliance Burhanuddin Rabbani entered Kabul and occupied the seat of the President in the capital.  He had been deprived from using the seat, with which he is terribly in love, for almost five years of the Taleban rule.  A honeymoon began with power.  The party began in Mazar led by General Dostum, in Herat led by General Ismail Khan, in Kabul by Rabbani, in Jalalabad by Haji Qadeer and Yonus Khalis.  Former warlord Hikmatyar missed the wedding party but instructed his followers to prepare his seat of power in Charasiab near Kabul from where he had been driven out by Taleban.    Abdul Rab Rasoul Sayaaf, one of the warlords of the Jihad period was absent from the scene, but his followers in Pakistan say he was and is in Kabul and very much in favor with the new rulers of the capital. Sibghatullah Mujaddedi, the first president of the Islamic State after the communist regime, declared his wish to go to Afghanistan and take part in the establishment of a broad-based government.  Peer Gailani another leader of the so-called Jihadi Tanzeems, put all his chips on the issue of supporting the Pashtun anti-Taleban movement and especially the Rome initiative. The whole party tells observers that it seems things are moving toward square one, the era before Taleban when warlords ruled the country not for the sake of the nation but for grabbing more power to themselves.

The international community perplexed with the rapid developments in the military field and lagging behind considerably in the diplomatic front, is trying desperately to get the parties concerned at least to agree to work for the establishment of a broad-based government.  A United Nations sponsored conference is due to take place this Monday in Bonn, Germany.  The conference is to be attended by four groups namely, the Rome and the Cyprus initiatives, the Northern Alliance and representatives of a Peshawar based recently concluded Pashtun assembly.  All of these efforts are rendered to get the majority Pashtuns involved in the post-Taleban administration. Presently a loose alliance of Afghan minorities led by the Tajiks and participated by the Uzbeks and Hazaras make the bulk of the Northern Alliance.  The only Pashtun leader in the alliance, Sayaaf is suspiciously absent from the scene.  The day belongs to the alliance of the minorities and they cherish it to the most.  However, concerns are mounting over the ability of the Northern Alliance to keep peace and security in the country, to assure civil conduct of its troops and to prevent excesses the like of which had led to the creation of the Taleban in the first place.  These excesses included looting and raping.  Unfortunately there are reports of the same coming out of Afghanistan.  The excesses included bullying, extractions, playing government, unwarranted searches and confiscations of property by armed men.  Unfortunately there are reports of the same coming out of Afghanistan.  The excesses included indiscriminate killing, vengeance, and illegal rule of small and large areas within cities and regions and a complete absence of the rule of law.  Unfortunately the same occurs in Afghanistan today.  Are these then not indicative of the return to square one?

On the other hand, Taleban are not totally uprooted.  Two pockets of Taleban and Taleban supporters are dangerously resisting the all out attacks by the United States air force and alliance troops in Kandahar in the south and Kunduz in the north.  In Kandahar, Mullah Omar who called himself the supreme leader and the leader of all the faithful has chosen to leave the affairs of the Taleban administration to a deputy Mullah Akhtar Usmai and himself has disappeared.  In Kunduz, the foreign troops of Arab and Pakistani supporters of the son of Laden, sensing that there is no escape for them and that no peace agreement would include amnesty for them apparently have decided to fight to the end.  One estimate says they number in thousands.  An attack for their annihilation will most certainly result in a blood bath in the besieged city.  On the other hand, according to General Dostum of the Northern Alliance in Mazar-e-Sharif, the Taleban elements of the defenders of Kunduz may surrender this Saturday or Sunday because they will be let free.  But in Afghan wars, anything is possible.  What will happen in Kunduz after the complete defeat of Taleban is a matter of concern to all humanitarians and human rights watchers. 

The UN has already reported discovery of some 600 bodies on the streets of Mazar-e-Sharif after the take over by the Northern Alliance.  It is too early, the report says, to say whether these men were killed during or after the war in Mazar.  In Kunduz, the situation may be even worse. 

Some observers believe all of this happens because of the discrepancy between the military advance and diplomatic achievements.  The latter is slow, rather too slow to play any effective role in the prevention of excesses.  Lacking the existence of a strong, respectable central government or even authority, the need for a mechanism for peace keeping at least during the transition period becomes more urgent.  The United Nations that in the beginning thought such a force was not needed in Afghanistan, has now realized the urgent need for maintaining of security in Afghanistan especially after the swift take over of power by the Northern Alliance. Francisc Vendrill reported this to the Security Council after his return from Afghanistan last week.  The Alliance itself opposed the idea of an international peace keeping force, as it would jeopardize its newly found and unmatched power.  But it has failed to show the world that it can contain excesses and can maintain peace and security in cities and towns where it has moved in.  It also has to prove to the world that as a legitimate government, as it calls itself, it can and has secured the highways and has curbed looting and armed robbery.  It still has to prove to all concerned including itself that it is a real government that has the support of the people.

The alternative to the situation, the idea of a broad-based government, to be established with the consent of the nation has also suffered setbacks.  The person of the former King, slow and indecisive as ever, has now placed its trust on a UN arranged meeting with the objective only of a preliminary agreement to agree on the establishment of a broad-based government. It is now known if the person of Zahir Shah will attend.  Still nobody including the UN mediators, two of the top international diplomats, namely Francisc Vendrill and Lakhdar Brahimi, have chalked out a definition for a broad-based government.  All what they preach for such a government is one that would include elements from all ethnic groupings in Afghanistan.  A study of the Afghan history and especially the relatively calm forty years of the reign of Zahir Shah show that Afghanistan before the present turmoil did not have major ethnic problems or issues as all Afghans lived peacefully.  In many provinces you would find examples of integration of ethnic groups.  In Logar province for example a village chieftain would be a Tajik while majority of the villagers would be Pushtun. In the North, you would find a Pashtun village chieftain in an Uzbek neighborhood. Ethnic differences came about only when foreign interests and especially Afghanistan’s neighbors got a chance to interfere in the affairs of the country.  Still, as this column has repeatedly referred to, there is an urgent need to define what a broad-based government is and how could it be formed so that homogeneity of governance is secured.  Otherwise, each cabinet minister would be governing solely for his own ethnic group and chaos and anarchy would result.

The problem is when the honeymoon is over and the dust has settled, urgent issues such as human rights, the rule of law and peace and security especially of people’s property and honor would become extremely hot.  Historically it has been proven that it is easy to take over Afghanistan in a matter of days, but to keep Afghanistan can only be achieved by the Afghans themselves.  This time around, enough experience exists so that basic steps should urgently be taken in order to pave the ground for meeting the requirements of the days after the honeymoon and music and dance. Presently energizing of the diplomatic efforts for the establishment of a transitional national government of the choice of people, and even before that the establishment of a United Nations peace- keeping force are of utmost importance.