Abstract: The Tokyo Conference on Afghan Reconstruction to be
held on Monday January 21, 2002 will be one of many such
conferences to deal with the needs of Afghanistan to dress its
wounds and to embark upon the great task of recuperation and
reconstruction. People genuinely interested in Afghanistan
would like the Tokyo Conference to be realistic and to reflect
the world conscience in giving a hand to the Afghan nation to
stand on their own. In this, they should consider on a
realistic basis the priorities in reconstruction for
Afghanistan, which certainly goes beyond mine clearing and
education. The Tokyo Conference should provide a vision for a
new Afghanistan, economically strong, politically stable and
socially capable to stand strong among the community of nations
in this most sensitive area in South Central Asia
The United Nations Development Program, the
Asian Development Bank and the World Bank helped by the governments
of Japan and the United States with the involvement of Saudi Arabia
are holding one of a series of conferences on streamlining of aid
for the reconstruction of Afghanistan. The conference will open in
Tokyo on January 21, 2002. Hamid Karzai head of the Interim
Authority of Afghanistan and Colin Powell, Secretary of State of the
United States are expected to attend.
The United Nations
has voiced its support for serious help in the reconstruction
efforts in Afghanistan through its special envoys including Mr.
Brahimi and even the person of the Secretary General of the United
Nations, Mr. Annan. Brahimi had once said it was the right of the
Afghan nation to expect help from the world in the reconstruction of
the country's infrastructure.
The United States,
leading many countries in the West and especially its allies in the
coalition that fight terrorism have also committed themselves that
while of necessity, as they would like to put it, Afghanistan is
still to be pounded by bombs, she deserves help for the revival of
its national life and rebuilding of its destroyed economy. This may
be a call of the world conscience or just simple politics; in any
case Afghanistan is to receive much needed help for the next five
and ten years. This help is needed first for dressing the wounds of
the country afflicted during the long years of imposed wars and then
for the reconstruction and rebuilding of the country's social and
economic institutions including its infrastructure.
The Interim
Authority created as a result of the fateful Bonn meeting came to
power in Afghanistan at a time that the government coffers were
empty to the very bottom. It is to be appreciated that the whole
existence of the Interim Authority, let alone its success, depends
on how it performs especially in the initial phases of conducting
the affairs of the government. In a third country situation, this
depends mostly on winning the trust of government officials. Many
ministry officials had abandoned their posts long ago for many
reasons. Many had taken refuge outside. Others had been fired
because of their allegiances to previous administrations. The
Taleban administration soon found itself on the run. The new
ministers of the Interim Authority upon taking office find out that
while physical structure of their offices are either damaged or
destroyed, personnel too, need to be rehired or redirected in order
to man the many routine services. Personnel alone, according to a
United Nations estimate require, on an emergency bases, between $ 70
to 100 million for 235,000 government employees who have not been
paid for the past 6-7 months. And this would only be for the running
of the routine administration in different government offices.
Some
Rough Figures: When the amount of aid needed is
calculated in an emergency, there are bound to be over and
underestimations. The Afghan authorities had estimated the needs of
the country for reconstruction to amount to US$ 45 billion. The
United Nations, the Asia Development Bank and the World Bank
estimate the need to be at about US$ 15 billion for a period of 10
years. Afghan Finance Minister Hedayat Arsala predicts the needs to
be around US$ 22 billion for the first five years. Presently there
is talk of an aid package of about US$ 5 billion for the first two
and a half years to be given to Afghanistan. The real needs of the
country probably are somewhere between $ 15 billion and $ 22 billion
for a period of ten years. Presently there is talk that Japan will
help with $ 500 million and President Bush has promised an amount of
$ 400 million for the first year. Also presently where a start up
fund was opened for getting the Interim Authority rolling, the
United Nations envoy Brahimi reported that only $ 7 million had been
received into the account which had been opened with an expectation
of meeting the very urgent need for $ 20 million. Among the very
first donors the United Kingdom and Germany have been named.
Beyond
Figures: But the issue of development and especially
the great task of reconstruction of a country after a quarter of a
century of destruction go beyond a consideration of mere money
figures. Money is still the most important ingredient of the
recovery process but how the money should be handled must make the
foundation of any financial assistance. In order for the money to
be effectively used for the reconstruction a number of prerequisites
need to be in place:
Prerequisites: Some of the most important ones are
listed below:
- Establishment
of a sound administration enjoying the support of the nation.
- A sound and
reliable political system based on democratic principles.
- A blue print of
the priorities for the reconstruction listing areas of emphasis
based on real needs.
- A blue print of
an accounting system, ensuring accountability at all levels of
government for every penny used in the process of development.
- Consideration
of the future needs and capabilities of the country with an
objective of reaching self-sufficiency in a realistic period of
time.
- Being aware of
the dangers of burdening the nation with loans and credits the
repayment of which might keep the economy of the nation a hostage
for many generations.
Some of the issues on the table at present are:
Of the real or perceived needs of the country, how much should be
forwarded to it in the form of grants and how much in the form of
loans and credits? One objective already referred to by the United
States is that loans should be around fifty percent of the aid given
to the country. This would mean that about half of the country’s
needs for financial help when provided as loans would have to be
repaid with interest. Repayment of loans and credits, a normal
practice in today’s world, may not be as feasible in a developing
economy of a developing nation. Loan utilization option would be
best met if investment were made purely in a profitable business
with the main objective of making money. In Afghanistan, most of
the aid would have to be directed toward social services the
dividend of which may not be felt over a long period of time and no
tangible profits in money terms would be accrued. It is therefore
extremely important that loans would be limited only to economically
feasible projects in the sectors of small and large industries.
Another important issue is the consideration of priorities for the
reconstruction. The Governor of the World Bank in a televised
interview alluded to the fact that among these were the issues of
mine clearing and education. Indeed mine clearing seems to be one
of the most important endeavors that would pave the way for all
other reconstruction efforts be it health, education, agriculture,
industries or communication and transportation. This also requires
a huge monitory input as well as a more rigorous system to expedite
the cleaning of land from mines all over the country. The dividend
of this effort as is evident will not be in money terms and thus if
funds for this effort are extended as loans to the country, their
repayment will remain one of the big problems for even the future
generations.
True Help or Spoils of Peace?
In a report Astri Suhrke & Arne Strand of Chr. Michelsen Institute
of Norway and Kristian Harpviken at Peace Research Institute of Oslo
had risen the issue that aid to Afghanistan should be given after
making sure that it is used for the purpose of reconstruction other
wise it may be like letting different sectarian groups or
administrations fight some more over the spoils of peace.
What is Expected of the Tokyo Conference:
People genuinely interested in Afghanistan would like the Tokyo
Conference to be realistic and to reflect the world conscience in
giving a hand to the Afghan nation to stand on their own. In this,
they should consider on a realistic basis the priorities in
reconstruction for Afghanistan, which certainly goes beyond mine
clearing and education. The Tokyo Conference should provide a
vision for a new Afghanistan, economically strong, politically
stable and socially capable to stand strong among the community of
nations in this most sensitive area in South Central Asia. 01/19/02