Politics Ahead of the Constitutional Loya Jirga
Dr. G. Rauf Roashan
The Institute for War and Peace reports "members of the constitutional
commission have been traveling around the provinces for more than a
month, holding public meetings to tell
people about the process and ask them what they think the new government
should look like. They have collated 30,000 surveys, and received 7,000
other comments-some in unusual forms such as a 200-meter banner from
Bamian with 1,000 opinions scrawled on it."
While constitution building in a country that has just come out of
a quarter of a century of war and unfortunately is still experiencing
wartime conditions due to the existence of foreign troops such as the
US forces hunting down Taliban and Al-Qaeda fighters, and a UN Security
Assistance Force located in Kabul, is extremely difficult, more difficult
is playing of power politics by a multitude of aspirants for power.
Among these are many so called political parties and factions and a
variety of coalitions. Fractionated movements and movements that are
establishing anew are also included in this huge fight for power. As
soon as the process of constitution building took form, Sibghatullah
Sangar, head of the Republican Party of Afghanistan reported an increase
in its membership from 5,000 to 35,000. A coalition of 106 democratic
parties under Osman Tareq talked of aligning their efforts to seek power
in the upcoming elections.
More recent reports talk of an uneasy Northern Alliance whose senior
leaders met to realign their policy at the wake of the new developments.
Its members in Karzai's cabinet such as Vice President Khalili, Marshal
Fahim, Minister of Defense, Abdullah Minister of Foreign Affairs and
Qanooni, Minister of Education as well as Abdul Rasoul Sayaf a Mujahideen
leader, attended this largest gathering of the Alliance in many months.
Conspicuous was the absence of Professor Rabbani leader of the Jamiat
Party. The meeting discussed establishing of a new party ahead of the
Constitutional Loya Jirga. This in itself points to the problems the
old and the new leadership of the Jamiat party have regarding a united
approach to issues of importance.
Other news items described efforts by former Mujahideen groups such
as the National Liberation Movement of Sibghatullah Mujadeddi and that
of Saye Ahmad Gailani's Front for the same purpose.
Former communist and leftist parties and movements are also on the
alert and are actively realigning their efforts from European countries
such as England where one of their more active leaders Sultan Ali Kishtmand
lives and from the Netherlands where many of the former Parcham members
reside. Former communist elements inside the country are also watching
the situations with interest.
In the royalists' camp, a group of eleven people led by Sultan Mahmoud
Ghazi, the former King's cousin introduced to a gathering of 1,500 people
in Kabul their new party named the National Solidarity Movement a couple
of days ago. Its leadership, it was reported, included some members
of the former King's family such as his son, Mir Weis and his grandson
Mustafa and a few former government officials. The group met immediately
after the return of the former ailing 89 year-old former King from France
where he had been incapacitated due to a femur fracture for the past
many weeks. The report did not tie up a similar move in the United States
by a senior advisor to the former King on his Rome Initiative, namely
Professor Abdul Satar Seerat with the new movement. This raises the
question of a probable breakaway of the party called the National Unity
of Afghanistan that was promoted by Professor Seerat from the royalist
movement. The movement made its objectives known by requesting the government
to conduct a referendum on whether the Afghan nation wants a return
of the monarchy.
It is obvious that the Afghan nation is well aware of the advance age
of the former King. While his supporters promote monarchy based on the
person of Zahir Shah as a uniting factor, the nation is aware that besides
giving his name for the purpose, the former King has little to contribute
towards the future of the country. In the recent power politics played
in Afghanistan, Zahir Shah proved to be a weak politician who was led
to accept the title of the father of the nation instead of the challenge
of directly leading the country. The Afghan nation is also aware that
the royalists strive not only to make Zahir Shah the King of Afghanistan,
but that they want a continuation of the monarchy led by Zahir Shah's
family members such as his son or grandson. This objective may be hard
to drive home considering political maturity of the public in Afghanistan
and the many contenders to power some with greater experience in politics
than either Mir Weis Zahir or Mustafa Zahir.
The role of the transitional government led by Hamed Karzai seems to
be fractured because of the many interests that are represented by members
of his cabinet who were never a cohesive or cooperative group to begin
with. Karzai himself an obvious contender for power has a more difficult
role to play to convince the nation that he is his own man and that
he is not promoted by any foreign interest group or country. To do this,
he needed a strong national army that would have made him a nationally
strong leader and a politician to reckon with both in his own country
as well as international level. His most recent maneuvering of asking
Ismael Khan to step down from his military commander position in Herat
and the appointment of Kandahar governor Gul Agha as the minister of
Urban Affairs in Kabul, if successful, might strengthen not only his
position as an effective leader but would earn him support among all
Afghans. On the other hand the national army is in the making and time
is not in favor of Karzai regarding the national army's full development.
Therefore the reaction of the two powerful warlords to Karzai's directives
could be used as litmus of the success or failure of his power play
at this important juncture.
All of this happens at a time that the Human Rights Watch group has
reported wide scale abuses and violations of human rights by warlords
in power and by some of the members of Karzai's government. A CBS news
report said: "In a report released Monday night, Human Rights Watch
accused soldiers and police loyal to powerful warlords-many of whom
are in the government of kidnapping, extortion, robbery and the rape
of women, girls and boys. The New York-based group also detailed numerous
death threats against Afghan journalists and low-level politicians who
criticized authorities."
Under these circumstances and the wide range political activities that
are undertaken by many groups for power it is hard to imagine that the
nation would get a fare chance in expressing its wish freely for not
only the type of the government it would want, but also for the type
of politicians it would entrust its fate to. Unless, there is a clear
cut plan devised by the United Nations that has automatically been awarded
a role of facilitator of restructuring of a democratic system for Afghanistan,
the prospects for a fare scrutiny of the views of the people on the
new constitution, elections for the Constitutional Loya Jirga, and the
ensuing general elections would remain vague. 8/14/03