What are the key
things that the UN and the US-led coalition hope to
achieve in these talks ?
The main aim of the conference (which might only last
for one day) is to get the parties to make a declaration
committing them to a broad-based government for
Afghanistan, to be set up after a two-year interim
administration.
This declaration would be followed up by detailed
negotiations in the coming weeks.
The plan is for all major factions to be there,
except the Taleban. The conference might prove to be the
easy bit. The real work will come afterwards.
Are the views of
neighbouring countries like Pakistan and Iran being
taken into account? What about Russia?
The views of neighbouring countries will be taken
into account but will not determine the outcome, nor
will they be a specific part of the conference.
The UN special representative for Afghanistan,
Lakhdar Brahimi, says there has to be a "home-grown"
solution.
This means that Pakistan, though it opposes the
Northern Alliance, will have to accept that the alliance
is a major player and that Russia, which supports the
alliance, knows that its allies do not have complete
control.
As the force that
controls the capital, Kabul, does the Northern Alliance
hold all the cards?
The Northern Alliance holds major cards, but not all
of them. It has possession of Kabul, but it does not
have the allegiance of all the Afghan tribes, especially
the Pashtun.
The alliance has said it is willing to share power.
Its intentions will now be tested.
The alliance has the military might of the United
States behind it and will not want to put that at risk -
a powerful incentive for it to compromise.
Is the return to
Kabul of the deposed former king of Afghanistan likely?
The former king, Zahir Shah, seems unlikely to play
the major role foreseen for him at an earlier stage.
Indeed, the UN and Western governments are
disappointed that he has not proved to be more of a
rallying point.
But his approval of the process that is to be kicked
off in the conference is seen as important.
He might return to Kabul at some stage but nothing is
planned.
Will they try to
agree on a UN peacekeeping force for Afghanistan?
A UN peacekeeping force could prove a real problem.
Already, the Northern Alliance (or United Front, as it
calls itself) has shown resistance to the widespread use
of foreign forces (like the British).
It argues that there is peace in Kabul already and
therefore there is no need for a peacekeeping force.
There is a chance of agreement on a force made up of
countries with Muslim populations, such as Indonesia,
Bangladesh and Turkey - though the Turkish military is
secular.
But such a force could be a symbol rather than a
power.
With so many ethnic
factions in Afghanistan, how will they reach an
agreement?
This is the big question and there are no easy
answers.
The best that can be said is that the eyes of the
world are on Afghanistan and that other countries in
chaos (Germany and Japan after the second world war, for
example) have emerged as stable societies.
Maybe this time, the Afghan people will sort
themselves out. The worst case scenario is that what is
now a civil war will continue and the country will be
fragmented.
What happens next
if there is no agreement at the talks?
The talks are likely to produce a declaration but
that is only the start. The dots will have to be joined
up in further discussions.
But if this fails, then the warlord solution comes
into effect, with strong individuals controlling local
sectors.
The war against Osama bin Laden and the Taleban,
which were the reasons for the war in the first place,
will go on in any case. It will not end until they are
defeated.
