The Afghan Foundation White Paper

Courtesy of Afghanistan Foundation, for further information contact

AFGHANISTAN FOUNDATION
209 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, SE SUITE 700
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20003
(202) 543-1177
FAX: (202) 543-7931

Table of Contents

Executive Summary...... ii

The White Paper Process v

Introduction. 1

I. The Importance of Afghanistan Today.......... 4

U.S. Objectives 6

II. Politics in Afghanistan Today: A Brief Review........ 8

III. Forging a Peace in Afghanistan 13

Option One: Limited U.S. Involvement.............. 13

Option Two: Increased Engagement of the Taliban.............. 15

Option Three: Weaken and Transform the Taliban 16

Recommended Policy: Transform then Engage.............. 17

IV. Pursuing a Regional Accommodation................ 21

Diplomatic efforts: Pakistan. 22

Diplomatic efforts: Iran.............. 24

Diplomatic Efforts: The International Community.............. 24

Diplomatic Efforts: Other Key States..... 25

V. Steps to Take at Home................. 27

Appendix A. A Chronology of Recent Afghan History................. 30

Appendix B. Major Factions in Afghanistan................. 32

Appendix C. Managing the Transition... 33

Appendix D. Biographies of Authors..... 36

Appendix E. About the Afghanistan Foundation 37

Appendix F. Map of Afghanistan……………………………………………………….39

Afghanistan Foundation ã 1999

Executive Summary

Since the end of the Cold War, the United States has consistently underestimated its interests in Afghanistan, allowing terrorism, the oppression of women, narcotics trafficking, discrimination against religious and ethnic minorities, and other problems to fester. Even though the August 1998 cruise missile strikes against Usama bin-Laden brought home the frightening possibility that Afghanistan is becoming another rogue state, a gap remains between the level of U.S. interests in the region and our level of engagement. To protect its interests, the United States must develop a coherent, effective, and sustainable policy to reduce the problems in Afghanistan and in the region as a whole.

Afghanistan and its neighbors are important to the United States for many reasons. Afghanistan is a haven for terrorists and extremists dedicated to fighting the United States and creating instability among such important allies as Saudi Arabia. Afghanistan also is the world’s second largest producer of opium. Washington also has humanitarian interests in Afghanistan: over two million Afghans are refugees, and the dominant militia — the Islamist-oriented Taliban — is brutal in its treatment of women and minorities. Afghanistan’s problems also hinder regional development. The region around Afghanistan is rich in oil and gas, which, if it can be exported, will help the Central Asian states consolidate their independence and develop economically. But chaos emanating from Afghanistan has fostered political instability and made economic progress more difficult. Last but not least, the continued radicalization of Afghanistan is destabilizing Pakistan. The Taliban’s ties to Pakistani Islamists combined with Islamabad’s other internal problems increase the possibility that Pakistan might become a failed state and turn further away from the West. Such a development would have untold grave consequences for U.S. national security. Afghanistan also destabilizes Central Asia, fostering violence that has hindered the implementation of a peace plan in Tajikistan and led to terrorism in Uzbekistan.

In its Afghanistan policy, the United States should stop a Taliban-led Afghanistan from acting as a rogue state, counter the spread of “Talibanism” — an extreme, backward and oppressive version of radical Islam — to Pakistan and Central Asia, improve human rights, and facilitate a lasting peace. Such a peace must be based on genuine Afghan self-determination and on the creation and existence of an Afghan government deriving its legitimacy from the support of the people. The attainment of such a peace, as well as an improved regional environment, entails a significant transformation of both the internal Afghan setting and of regional interactions.

To meet these objectives, Washington should take steps to weaken the Taliban and, ideally, transform it into a more benign movement. This will involve measures to isolate the Taliban internationally and to encourage the emergence of a more moderate leadership. The ultimate goal is to create a popularly-based, legitimate Afghan government that does not threaten regional and international peace and stability. Washington should also assist the development of alternative political forces that can bridge the chasm among Afghanistan’s various ethnic and religious communities and would lead Afghanistan to work more closely with the United States and the international community. This third force could be composed of moderate Afghans, such as the former king Zahir Shah and those favoring a more democratic society, such as the Afghans involved in the Intra-Afghan Dialogue. The United States also needs to do a better job of explaining its goals and strategy to the people of Afghanistan through its public diplomacy.

To complement this transformation campaign, Washington should also spell out its conditions for normalizing relations with the Taliban. The United States should offer to recognize and work with the Taliban if it agrees to a cease-fire and meets a set of conditions regarding human rights — both gender and ethnic — terrorism, and narcotics, as well as the formation of a more genuinely representative government. For now, the Taliban’s rigidity and radicalism would lead to the failure of this effort: such concessions would, in essence, alter the Taliban’s fundamental beliefs and policies. Over time, however, the Taliban may moderate and become more pragmatic as the transformation campaign begins to take effect. In addition, clarifying U.S. conditions for normalizing relations will aid U.S. efforts to gain regional support for the transformation campaign.

Bringing peace to Afghanistan also requires intensifying the search for regional accommodation — especially between Iran and Pakistan. Here as well U.S. policy should pursue two parallel tracks. The first would emphasize cooperation and seek to develop a commonly-agreed approach to peace in Afghanistan. As part of the regional accommodation, Pakistan must abandon its quest for hegemony in Afghanistan, though Washington should recognize Pakistan’s legitimate interests in Afghanistan. Other regional powers, particularly Iran and Russia, in exchange should stop fomenting instability there. The second track involves a more active U.S. role, with Washington both applying pressure and offering inducements to push the process along. Most importantly, the United States must press Pakistan to support the new U.S. strategy and encourage Islamabad to stop supporting the Taliban as long as the Taliban pursues its current policies. Although influencing Pakistan’s Afghanistan policy is difficult given divisions within Pakistan’s government and society on this issue, without Islamabad’s support U.S. initiatives are far less likely to succeed. Washington should deepen its dialogue with Iran and intensify its talks with Russia, China, and the Central Asian states to gain their cooperation.

The United States should also redirect UN peace-making efforts and multi-national initiatives, such as the “6+2” process that involves Afghanistan’s neighbors, Russia, and the United States. Recent UN efforts to end the civil war have fallen on deaf ears. UN efforts should be focused instead on placing pressure on the Taliban. UN efforts should also focus on promoting dialogue across the range of Afghan society, particularly among those elements not affiliated with warlords whose voices might otherwise not be heard. Washington should also consider broadening the “6+2” dialogue, including sympathetic European powers that share U.S. concerns over human rights, terrorism, and narcotics.

The United States must also elevate the importance of Afghanistan at home. This will involve efforts at a declaratory level, announcing a new direction in U.S. policy and making it clear that Washington intends to play a greater role in the region. The United States must also devote additional resources — economic, public diplomacy and intelligence — to the region and explore ways to win the cooperation of important regional states. Perhaps most importantly, high-level diplomatic attention is required. Although the threat from Bin Laden has drawn high-level attention, Afghanistan itself must stop being a minor foreign policy concern and become an administration priority.

Introduction

In August 1998, the United States launched cruise missiles against a terrorist training camp and announced a virtual state of war against Usama bin-Laden, a Saudi terrorist financier who is headquartered in Afghanistan. The missile strikes are only the latest reminder of the problems the United States and the region face as long as Afghanistan remains in turmoil. Militias and other groups in Afghanistan brutalize women, sell drugs, train guerrillas, oppress rival ethnic and religious groups, and otherwise represent a blemish on the new world that they worked so hard to create by defeating the Red Army in the last years of the Cold War. The human rights situation is a nightmare. Millions of Afghans are refugees, and those remaining in the country often lack food, shelter, education and medicine. Women and minorities bear a particularly heavy burden, as the dominant militia — the Taliban — oppresses both. The problems go beyond Afghanistan. Instability in Afghanistan has prevented the region’s economic development and, most worrisome, has led to unrest in the region and in key U.S. allies such as Saudi Arabia.

Because the United States commits few resources to Afghanistan and the region in general, it is not able to act to protect its interests. Washington must develop a coherent, effective, and sustainable policy to solve the many problems Afghanistan faces and poses for the United States. It is the contention of the White Paper authors that the United States should increase its level of engagement in Afghanistan. Washington could obtain considerable benefits without deploying military forces or spending massive amounts of resources.

After almost 25 years of war and civil strife that have shattered the country, the Taliban has made dramatic gains on the ground and now dominates most of the country. Pakistan supports the Taliban, providing it with arms and money as well as organizational support. But the Taliban’s victories do not mean that peace will come to this troubled country. Although the Taliban appears to have gained dominance over most of the country, at least some limited level of conflict is likely to continue. Forces led by Ahmed Shah Masoud are still active in northeastern Afghanistan, as are several Shi’a groups. In addition, the Taliban itself may split in the future, and many non-Pashtun and Shi’a parts of Afghanistan chafe at the Taliban’s restrictive rule. Indeed, even among the Pashtuns there is some ambiguity toward the Taliban. Furthermore, regional meddling in the country appears increasingly coordinated, though coordination remains uneven. Iran, Russia, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan back what is left of the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance and would probably aid any other rivals that emerge.

A Taliban victory and consolidation of power might be even more dangerous for the United States and the region than continued chaos. The Taliban is hostile to the West. In its policies at home, it rejects widely-shared human rights norms regarding the treatment of women. Indeed, it is no exaggeration to say that Afghan women may face more onerous restrictions than any country in the world: Afghan girls in the main do not receive schooling; employment opportunities for Afghan women outside their home have been severely restricted; women’s health care is neglected; women-headed households are not eligible for state assistance; and in many parts of Afghanistan, women are not allowed to leave the home without an escort. Religious minorities also are oppressed, as the Taliban seeks to impose its brand of Islam on Afghanistan’s Muslim communities. Moreover, it hosts terrorist and subversive groups dedicated to waging war against the United States. Finally, the Taliban itself has few members skilled in modern governance, and thus basic tasks of a state, such as economic and social development, are neglected.

Despite considerable U.S. interests in the region, Washington’s level of engagement in Afghanistan is relatively limited. Since the fall of the Soviet-backed Najibullah regime in 1992, high-level U.S. involvement in Afghanistan has been minimal. Afghanistan policy has remained uncoordinated, subject to the vagaries of regional politics and bureaucratic shifts in the United States. Nor has Washington strongly supported various UN initiatives. As a result, Afghanistan policy has drifted and has not been linked to U.S. policy toward Pakistan, Iran, Central Asia, or other key regional actors in any systematic way.

This paper attempts to begin the process of formulating a coherent policy to meet the challenges emerging from the crisis in Afghanistan. Lasting peace will require both a domestic accommodation in Afghanistan and a return of regional cooperation. The United States will have to take steps to achieve both these requirements simultaneously, or else the threats to U.S. interests will grow.

I. The Importance of Afghanistan Today

Since the end of the Cold War, the United States has consistently underestimated its interests in Afghanistan. Afghanistan is important to the United States for a range of strategic, moral, economic, and historic reasons. Afghanistan is a haven for some of the world’s most lethal anti-U.S. terrorists and their supporters. In recent years, however, instability in Afghanistan has spread outside its borders. Many terrorists in Saudi Arabia and Muslim extremists in the West received training in Afghanistan. These extremists have caused violence and instability in Israel, Bosnia, the Persian Gulf, and other parts of the world where U.S. interests are engaged. These extremists pose a threat to U.S. soldiers and civilians, to the Middle East peace process, and to the stability of our allies in the Persian Gulf and to Pakistan and Central Asia. As the world’s second largest producer of opium, Afghanistan also is a major exporter of drugs, both to Europe and increasingly to the United States.

In addition, Afghanistan itself occupies a vital geo-strategic position, near such critical but unstable regions as the Persian Gulf and the Indo-Pakistan border. Indeed, the importance of Afghanistan may grow in the coming years, as Central Asia’s oil and gas reserves, which are estimated to rival those of the North Sea, begin to play a major role in the world energy market. Afghanistan could prove a valuable corridor for this energy as well as for access to markets in Central Asia. In addition, Afghanistan can serve as a trade link between Central and South Asia. Instead, Afghanistan has proven an obstacle to the development of this region: Afghanistan’s leading exports to the area are drugs, arms, and Islamic radicalism. Competition for Afghanistan and for regional influence has resulted in Iranian and Pakistani involvement on opposite sides in the ongoing struggle in Afghanistan. This involvement is a leading cause for the prolongation of the war.

Finally, the United States has deep humanitarian interests in Afghanistan. The infant mortality rate in Afghanistan is the highest in the world. Over two million Afghan refugees live in Pakistan and Iran, destabilizing Pakistan and constituting an ongoing tragedy in both of these countries. Afghanistan’s infrastructure has been destroyed. The educated classes for the most part have either been killed or have left the country. Because of the lack of modern schools and the Taliban’s policies, Afghan children receive little education, undermining the prospects for future economic development.

Although the Taliban has brought more stability to large parts of Afghanistan, the price has been high. The Taliban has reduced the anarchy that prevailed in many parts of the country, collected arms from various militias, and lowered the prospects for the disintegration of the country. But fundamental problems remain acute. Relations among ethnic groups have deteriorated beyond their already low point after Taliban forces massacred Shi’a Hazaras in Mazar-e Sharif in 1998. Narcotics trafficking continues unabated. The Taliban also have failed to attract educated Afghans to their cause and thus have made little progress in tackling their country’s devastating economic problems.

Afghan women bear much of the suffering. Before the Taliban took power, Afghan women played an important part in Afghanistan’s public life. Today, however, they face numerous restrictions:

· In cities under its control, the Taliban has placed strict curbs on the role of women outside their home. Except in rare circumstances, women are not allowed to work or to interact with males who are not relatives.

· In violation of Islamic precepts, the Taliban has limited school education for girls. Amnesty International reports that fear of punishment has prevented many Afghan women and girls from seeking education and that the Taliban has ordered the closure of home schools that educate Afghan girls.

· Female-headed households often do not receive Taliban-controlled assistance, leading to malnutrition and even starvation.

· Women’s health care is poor, leading to high infant mortality rates among other problems.

For the United States, these problems are of special importance, as Afghanistan played a crucial role in bringing about the collapse of the Soviet Union: perhaps the greatest U.S. foreign policy triumph since World War II. Many of the problems that plague Afghanistan today stem from the Soviet occupation and the U.S.- and Pakistani-backed resistance. Afghanistan may have been the decisive battleground of the Cold War, but the Afghan people paid a heavy price for the West’s and their victory. As the Soviets and the United States pulled out, ethnic, tribal, and sectarian conflict exploded into a brutal civil war whose dimensions far exceeded those of the struggle for power that had begun in the years before the Soviet invasion. While the world enjoys the benefits of this struggle, the Afghan people continue to suffer. Over one million Afghans have died in the struggle, and over four million have become refugees at one time or another: equivalent figures for the United States would be over 13 million killed and 52 million refugees.

U.S. Objectives

Given this historic responsibility and wide range of interests, the United States should, at a minimum, seek the following objectives in its policy toward Afghanistan:

· Reversing the trend toward a rogue state. A Taliban-led Afghanistan could become increasingly hostile to the West and actively support groups that use violence against the United States and its allies. Given that the Taliban already hosts several of the world’s leading terrorist organizations and leaders, Washington must work to reverse this trend. In addition to eliminating terrorists training bases and other forms of support for terrorism, Washington must also seek an end to the involvement of all major Afghan groups in the narcotics trade.

· Preventing the spread of “Talibanism” to other countries. The strain of radical Islam found in Afghanistan has found sympathizers in neighboring states, particularly Pakistan and Tajikistan. Smaller numbers of sympathizers can be found elsewhere in the Arab world and other Central Asian states. The spread of the Taliban’s ideology will further destabilize these countries, spread human rights violations, and turn these governments against the United States and the international community in general.

· Improving human rights conditions. Another U.S. goal should be to reduce the level of oppression and misery of the people of Afghanistan. Ending the repression of urban women, encouraging education for Afghans, including Afghan girls, and halting the mistreatment of ethnic and religious minorities is particularly important. Realistically, the objective should not be a Jeffersonian democracy but rather the return of a more tolerant spirit comparable to what prevailed in Afghanistan before the Soviet invasion.

· Promoting a new regional order based on cooperation rather than rivalry. Afghanistan is a source of competition among states in the region, leading to increased tension and violence. Pakistan, Iran, and other regional states are currently contributing to the violence, backing rivals against each other and otherwise feeding the flames of war.

· Facilitating a lasting and just peace in Afghanistan. Any acceptable settlement must move the country toward peace. As peace comes to the region, sustained economic development and trade are more likely to take root. This peace, however, should not come at any price. If Afghanistan under the Taliban continues to behave as a rogue state, or if the repression of women and minorities increased, then peace might actually conflict with other important U.S. interests.

· Creating a legitimate government in Afghanistan. For any Afghan government to bring peace and prosperity to the region, it must derive its legitimacy from all the Afghan people. That is, any government should allow all major religious, ethnic, and tribal groups a voice in decision-making and respect their unique cultures and prerogatives. Any government also must be free from the domination of neighboring and extra-regional powers as well.

This list of U.S. objectives is comprehensive and will be difficult to attain in full. Nevertheless, Washington should weigh developments in the region and measure the success of its policy by determining how much progress is made toward meeting these objectives. Again, the goal is not perfection but progress.

II. Politics in Afghanistan Today: A Brief Review

Because of the fighting, narrow ethnic and sectarian identities have come to the fore in Afghanistan. Before the onset of the civil war, Afghanistan had a loose national identity. During the anti-Soviet struggle, Islam united many of the fighters, providing a common banner under which to fight the invaders. Once the Soviet-backed regime fell, war, anarchy and fragmentation followed. Without the glue of the common enemy, the opposition turned their guns on each other. The conflict became increasingly one of ethnic and sectarian groups, particularly Pashtuns, Tajiks, Uzbeks, and the Shi’a Hazaras. Afghanistan became a war of all against all. During the battle for Kabul from 1992 to 1996, every major group both allied with and fought against every other major group at one time or another. In many other parts of the country warlordism is common. (A chronology of recent events in Afghanistan and a brief description of major groups can be found in Appendices A and B, respectively.)

Although the conflict in Afghanistan has deep social and political roots, the Soviet invasion and occupation changed its dynamics tremendously. For much of Afghanistan’s history, the Pashtuns produced the Afghan monarchs and dominated the military and the bureaucracy. Among Afghanistan’s other main ethnic groups, the Tajiks participated more in running the country than the two other significant ethnic groups: the Uzbeks and the Shi’a Hazaras. The Hazaras in particular were disenfranchised and impoverished. The struggle against the Soviets changed the balance power among ethnic groups and increased ethnic tensions. Moscow used ethnicity to gain support for its occupation by offering concessions to minority groups in return for their support or neutrality in the war. Moscow also encouraged the growth of ethnically-based rural militias that would protect their areas from the anti-Soviet resistance groups. One important example of ethnic militias was the Jawzjani militia comprised of Uzbeks. The militia was used in non-Uzbek regions, which further strained relations among minorities. Non-Pashtun ethnic groups increasingly chafed under Pashtun domination.

Resistance politics and the policies of the militias’ outside power supporters also had a major impact on the balance of power among the ethnic groups. First, groups such as Tajiks and Uzbeks, which traditionally did not have access to arms and were largely excluded from the key posts in the Afghan armed forces, acquired arms and gained military experience. Second, the Pashtuns were divided into many groups. Six of the seven parties in the Pakistan-based “Afghan Interim Government” were Pashtun. Active in the opposition to the Soviets, these parties and various groups received support from the United States, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia.

The Taliban (Islamic Student) movement, which dominates Afghanistan today, emerged in 1994. The movement began in Kandahar and consisted of disgruntled former Mujahedin and students of Islamic studies from schools located in Pakistan along the Afghan border. On August 8, 1998, the Taliban gained control over the northern city of Mazar-e Sharif, effectively relegating its remaining opponents to the country’s hinterlands. This victory came after years of hard fighting, in which the Taliban first consolidated control over the Pashtun heartland and then conquered more ethnically mixed areas, starting in Heart, in western Afghanistan, and then taking Jalalabad, in eastern Afghanistan, and the capital Kabul. The Taliban now controls almost all entry points into Afghanistan and the lion’s share of the country’s lucrative opium crop. Because of the Taliban’s victory, one unwelcome scenario for Afghanistan’s future – the partition of the country into ethnic cantons – has become highly unlikely.

The Taliban appears hostile to the United States, the West, and many regional powers. The Taliban’s rhetoric is becoming more anti-Western. Even Saudi Arabia, which had recognized the Taliban government and provided the movement with modest support, withdrew their ambassador in September 1998 due to the Taliban’s support for terrorism.

The Taliban also faces considerable opposition within Afghanistan, increasing the chances that an alternative, more moderate, force could develop. The Taliban is supported by most Pashtuns, but many oppose its harsh ideology and ties to Pakistan. Many Afghans regard it as an essentially foreign movement, a product of the refugee camps in Pakistan rather than of traditional Afghan values. Traditional Afghans also resent many of the Taliban’s radical social changes. Many Pashtun commanders support the Taliban at present but are not committed to its radical agenda and would probably work with alternative leaderships. Non-Pashtun ethnic groups resent Pashtun dominance and thus are lukewarm supporters of the Taliban at best. Many residents of the country’s two largest cities, Kabul and Herat, are hostile to the Taliban, resenting its harsh form of Islamic law.

The organized opposition to the Taliban is currently weak, however. Known commonly as the “Northern Alliance,” the amalgam of anti-Taliban forces control only limited swaths of remote territories, including the Tajik-populated Panjsher Valley, much of Takhar and Badakhshan, and parts of the Hazarajat, where Afghanistan’s Shi’a Muslim community lives. Many traditional forces have lost influence during the years of war, although Zahir Shah is generally respected.

In addition to internal Afghan dynamics, regional rivalry — especially between Iran and Pakistan — has been a key factor in the ongoing struggle in Afghanistan. By supporting the Afghan resistance to the Soviet occupation, Pakistan gained considerable influence in Afghanistan. Most recently Pakistan has provided a wide range of support and direct aid to the Taliban. Pakistan has armed the Taliban, provided it with military advisers and intelligence, and helped supply the movement. Without Pakistani aid, the Taliban would not have been able to score some important initial victories and to sustain its subsequent drive to take over the rest of the country.

Islamabad has a wide range of interests in Afghanistan. Pakistan sees a friendly government in Kabul as essential to its national security. Given the ongoing hostility of New Delhi, Islamabad requires a secure northwestern border and, if possible, “strategic depth” for basing its forces in the event of a conflict. Pakistan also sees a friendly government in Afghanistan as a bridge to the markets and energy reserves of Central Asia.

Pakistan’s leadership, however, is not united in its backing of the Taliban or on priorities in Afghanistan. Several leading Pakistani government officials claim they seek a negotiated settlement in Afghanistan, not an outright Taliban victory. So far, however, the more pro-Taliban intelligence services have set the policy line. A range of Islamic movements and institutions in Pakistan also support the Taliban.

Iran, which also gained influence in Afghanistan because of the struggle against the Soviets, is bitterly opposed to both the Taliban and to growing Pakistani influence. To maintain influence in Afghanistan (and offset the influence of Pakistan), Iran backs Shi’a groups and other opponents of the Taliban. Iran has tried to organize and unite Afghanistan’s Shi’a population and has provided anti-Taliban forces with money, supplies, and arms. Afghanistan’s Shi’a, however, are only lukewarm in their support for Iran and often resent Tehran’s meddling. Iran worked closely with other Northern Alliance members in an attempt to stop the Taliban’s consolidation of power.

Like Pakistan, Iran has myriad interests in Afghanistan. Perhaps more than any other group in Afghanistan, the Taliban challenges Iran’s interests. At times, Iran also has sought to increase its influence among Persian (Dari)-speaking parts of Afghanistan. Iran is particularly concerned about the fate of Afghanistan’s Shi’a, which the Taliban abuses. When the Taliban gained control of Mazar-e Sharif, they killed nine Iranian diplomats, leading to widespread anger throughout Iran. Tehran fears instability on its border, seeks to return the hundreds of thousands of Afghan refugees still living in Iran, and is concerned over the flow of drugs from Afghanistan. Tehran also may have an interest in continued instability in Afghanistan. Like Afghanistan, Iran seeks to be a route for gas and oil pipelines from Central Asia and may fear that a stable Afghanistan will lead to Iran being bypassed.

Several of the former Soviet republics of Central Asia also are playing a major role in Afghanistan’s politics. Both Uzbekistan and Tajikistan are concerned that the Taliban might sponsor Islamic radicalism in their countries. They have provided transit routes for arms and supplies to the Northern Alliance. Tajikistan has served as a base for arming the Taliban’s foes, with both Russia and Iran working with it to aid their Afghan allies. The recent loss of airbases by Northern Alliance forces has made Tajikistan more important. For several years, Uzbekistan backed Abdul Rashid Dostum, an ethnic Uzbek whose territory the Taliban overran in 1997-1998.

Moscow has played a limited but important role in Afghanistan in recent years. After the fall of the Najibullah regime, Russia reduced its involvement in the country. During the civil war in Tajikistan in 1992-1993, however, Russia returned to the region. Moscow has tried to capitalize on instability, real and imagined, portraying itself as the protector of Central Asia against the menace of Islamic radicalism. It has worked with the Central Asian states to provide arms and supplies to anti-Taliban forces. Russia is also leading an international diplomatic campaign to isolate the Taliban, pressing its case at the United Nations and in other international fora. Like Iran, Russia may not be enthusiastic about building oil and gas pipelines from Turkmenistan across Afghanistan to South Asia and beyond.

III. Forging a Peace in Afghanistan

A large gap exists between the high level of U.S. interests in Afghanistan and the modest level of U.S. engagement in the region in recent years. Until this gap is bridged, problems are likely to mount. Left unchecked, they will lead to continued anti-U.S. terrorism, an increase in the flow of drugs from the region, and greater regional instability. Talibanism could even spread to neighboring countries, creating further difficulties for the United States. Opportunities for economic development in Central Asia and to bring peace to Tajikistan and other regions will be squandered.

The United States has several alternatives for meeting these challenges in Afghanistan. This section reviews three options, noting their relative advantages and disadvantages. All the options are imperfect: the United States must recognize this and strive for the best, rather than the ideal, policy. In the opinion of the White Paper authors, the best course requires weakening and transforming the Taliban into a more moderate movement while laying out firm conditions that, if accepted by the Taliban, would lead to a U.S.-Taliban rapprochement.

Whatever option is chosen, the United States must make a greater effort to work more with Afghans themselves in deciding their country’s fate. The United States and Afghanistan’s neighbors must work on the principle of genuine Afghan self-determination. Past U.S. and international efforts failed in part because they ignored the legitimate concerns of Afghan groups. Any internal solution will require extensive Afghan participation if it is to succeed over the long-term.

Option One: Limited U.S. Involvement

The easiest, but least rewarding, policy for the United States is to continue its current approach of limiting its involvement in Afghanistan and the region in general. Washington could rely primarily on UN efforts, restricting its own involvement to moral suasion, small amounts of humanitarian aid, and occasional military strikes against terrorists. Although the United States would press for peaceful solutions to regional problems, it would not make Afghanistan a priority in its relations with Pakistan or other regional actors. In essence, Washington would rely on Afghan parties and regional forces to create their own balance and modus vivendi: the United States would try to work with the resulting outcome. Such an approach limits U.S. exposure and requires relatively few resources.

However, limited U.S. involvement has several disadvantages:

· Risks to U.S. security. Limited involvement is likely to result in Afghanistan remaining a base for operation of the some of the most hostile terrorists against the United States and its allies. The United States would have be prepared to respond to such threats with measures such as the August 1998 missile strike for years to come, with uncertain prospects for success. Narcotics trafficking from Afghanistan may increase: the return of refugees could place more of Afghanistan under cultivation, and the Taliban’s close ties to Pakistan will facilitate cross-border smuggling.

· The spread of extremism. The Taliban has already hosted training camps for fighters who have spread radicalism to Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Xinjiang, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and elsewhere. A lack of U.S. involvement may allow the Taliban to intensify this support and perhaps spread its extremist interpretation of Islam to other countries. Perhaps most worrisome, the Taliban might further increase its already-considerable influence in Pakistan, leading that state to become hostile to the United States.

· Continuing the human rights and humanitarian problems in Afghanistan. The Taliban and other important Afghan actors have freely ignored human rights admonitions from the United States, other Western countries, and the United Nations, correctly perceiving that the suffering of women or the Shi’a carries little immediate penalty. Moreover, they have interfered with the delivery and administration of international humanitarian relief and economic development programs. These problems are likely to continue in the absence of U.S. pressure.

· Dangers down the road. It is possible that a Taliban-led Afghanistan could become even more active in its support for terrorism and trafficking in narcotics. A lack of U.S. involvement today creates the impression that the United States will tolerate criminal behavior, perhaps leading the Taliban to increase it. The Taliban may increase its support for terrorism as a result.

Option Two: Increased Engagement of the Taliban

The United States might consider working with the Taliban given its ascendancy. Regardless of the claims of other Afghan groups, the Taliban is the dominant power in Afghanistan today. The United States is already pressing the Taliban to end its objectionable behavior. By working with it even more closely, Washington might make it a more responsible power and perhaps lead it to renounce support for terrorism and to improve its human rights record. U.S. support for the Taliban may also help bring an end to the civil war – a tremendous humanitarian achievement even if the Taliban’s human rights record remains dismal. To secure U.S. objectives regarding gender issues, terrorism and narcotics, Washington might make some concessions. In contrast to a policy of limited involvement, the United States would be active in its engagement in the region, expending diplomatic and economic resources to further U.S objectives. Washington would make developments in Afghanistan a priority in its regional relations as well.

As part of an engagement strategy, the United States and the international community would also offer the Taliban a range of inducements to encourage it to become more responsible and moderate. The United States, the United Nations, or other interested powers could sponsor a donors conference to assist in Afghanistan’s reconstruction. The international community could also support relief organizations, offer development loans, and otherwise try to foster humanitarian and economic objectives. Aid would be used to encourage the Taliban to initiate more moderate policies and to reward the Taliban if it stayed the course. The United States might also offer to support turning over the Afghan seat at the United Nations to the Taliban

An engagement policy is not likely to work given the Taliban’s intransigence. Thus, the United States would face the following problems:

· Continued support for terror and subversion. Given the Taliban’s poor past record, there is little reason to expect it to renounce radicalism in exchange for ties to Washington. The Taliban’s leaders have shown little regard for Washington or the West’s good opinion and, if they consolidated power, they might actually increase meddling abroad, as have other revolutionary regimes in the past.

· Additional human rights abuse probable. As the Taliban has consolidated its control over Afghanistan, its restrictions on women, abuse of the Shi’a, and other human rights transgressions have grown. In response to UN and U.S. protests, the Taliban has denounced outside interference and made no concessions. Engagement might lead it to conclude that it can continue human rights abuses with no penalty.

· Continued rivalry in Afghanistan and the region. Although in theory U.S. support might help bring about an end to the war, it is not likely that Iran or the Central Asian states will cease their opposition to the Taliban. Thus war, and guerrilla war in particular, is likely to continue.

· Little support at home. Deepening engagement with the Taliban is likely to be rejected by key segments of American body politic.

Option Three: Weaken and Transform the Taliban

The United States could also oppose the Taliban more directly, seeking to weaken it while transforming it into a more moderate movement. This opposition would involve two steps. First, the United States and its allies must weaken the Taliban through military stalemate. To this end, Washington could pressure Pakistan and others to end support for the Taliban.

Second, as Taliban difficulties increase, the movement could be taken over by more moderate elements. In order to encourage this development, Washington should identify more moderate leaders, using offers of aid and other incentives to convince individual leaders to support alternatives to the Taliban. As current Taliban policies are inconsistent with Islam and do not serve Afghanistan’s interests, many local leaders would be willing to consider alternatives. The United States should also consider working with the former King and other leaders in exile who espouse moderate policies and seek to bring Afghanistan’s communities together.

Transforming the Taliban offers several advantages. Most importantly, it would garner considerable support from the American people, particularly those concerned with terrorism and human rights. A transformation policy also is likely to keep the Taliban focused on problems at home, reducing its ability to spread radicalism abroad. If successful, a transformation policy could lead the Taliban to reject terrorism and narcotics trafficking and, eventually, assist in bringing lasting peace to Afghanistan.

Like the other options, however, transforming the Taliban poses several serious problems:

· The likelihood of continued war. Because the United States is trying to weaken the Taliban, the civil war will continue — it has already returned to a few areas under the Taliban’s control. As a result, the humanitarian nightmare of death and carnage will continue, refugees will not return, and a pipeline will not be built.

· Few guarantees of success. Transforming the Taliban could well fail, further embittering it towards the United States. This could lead it to actively sponsor attacks against U.S. citizens throughout the world.

· Tensions in the U.S.-Pakistan relationship. Islamabad will be reluctant to abandon the current Taliban leadership and may move further from Washington in response to a U.S. campaign against it. Even if U.S. pressure influences the government’s senior leadership, it is highly likely that elements of the military, intelligence services, and non-government religious organizations will continue to actively aid the Taliban.

Recommended Policy: Transform then Engage

Because the Taliban under its current leadership is not moderating its behavior and is not likely to respond to an engagement attempt, the United States should take steps to weaken and transform it. Engagement is not feasible at this time: the Taliban will not respect it as long as the movement’s position in Afghanistan is strong, and engagement has little support in the United States. In addition, an initial embrace of the Taliban would send the wrong signals to its opponents in Afghanistan and the region, discouraging the very forces the United States seeks to strengthen. However, while beginning the transformation process, Washington should set the conditions for engagement, making it clear that it will work with the Taliban if it moderates its behavior on a range of issues. In short, U.S. policy toward Afghanistan should follow two parallel and complementary tracks, one of which begins a much tougher policy toward the Taliban while the other spells out the conditions under which the United States would work with the Taliban.

As part of the effort to weaken and transform the Taliban, Washington should begin a detailed intelligence effort, aimed at learning about divisions within the Taliban, its sources of support, and other relevant information. The United States should also coordinate its actions among regional actors to prepare for transforming the Taliban. In essence, Washington will encourage the establishment and strengthening of forces that will lead to a more moderate and peaceful Afghanistan. Initially, this activity should in part be covert, to avoid any stigma that might be attached to a public U.S. endorsement.

In practice, transformation will involve several steps:

· Announce a new direction in foreign policy, making it clear to both regional allies and potential adversaries that Washington is actively opposed to the Taliban’s hegemony as long as it refuses to act as a responsible power.

· Gain additional funding for measures to transform the Taliban.

· Begin a public campaign to gain the support of the American people for this effort.

· Begin a public campaign aimed at Afghans to gain support for the new U.S. strategy and to weaken support for the Taliban. This campaign should exploit a range of media to communicate with as many Afghans as possible. The goal is to build support from the ground up, both among the Afghan diaspora and in Afghanistan itself, for U.S. objectives.

· Explore ways to assist foes of the Taliban in their struggle. This will involve both succoring current resistance groups and, more importantly, identifying and helping new anti-Taliban forces that have more support outside their immediate communities.

· Increase engagement with other political forces. Washington should try to encourage new leaders who are not tied to warring factions and promote Afghan organizations that provide a way to organize Afghans committed to human rights and power-sharing. Supporting King Zahir Shah’s recent initiative to bring together Afghan moderates is one appropriate step.

· Examine how to work with moderate forces inside the Taliban. Alternative leaders should be identified, and fracture points within the movement noted.

· Provide increased humanitarian aid. The United States and the international community should support measures to alleviate the suffering of the people of Afghanistan in the few regions outside the control of Taliban radicals. Washington might also encourage American groups concerned with improving the condition of women to initiate and expand programs to educate and care for Afghan women and girls. Humanitarian aid, however, must be coordinated with the overall U.S. strategy, or else it will simply bolster the Taliban’s power and influence.

Transforming the Taliban also requires measures to create a credible, Afghan-generated alternative to the Taliban over the long-term. If the Taliban cannot be transformed, it must be replaced. This effort would entail the systematic engagement of various Afghan groups, both among the northern opposition forces and among disaffected Taliban elements. Washington should not neglect important figures in exile who might retain support in the country. Included in such an effort is material and moral support for all activities that will move toward a legitimate Afghan government that is well-institutionalized and committed to Afghanistan’s reconstruction. The United States should in no way dictate the ultimate arrangement but rather help Afghan groups that are willing to work together and accept communal power-sharing.

As the campaign to weaken and transform the Taliban begins, Washington should clarify the conditions under which it will work with the Taliban. Such a measure will help the United States persuade other countries to support its hard line stance by making it clear that Washington will accept Taliban concessions. Washington should end its transformation campaign, offer the Taliban recognition, and provide limited humanitarian relief to areas under its control, if the Taliban agrees to:

· End support for terrorism and subversion. In particular, the Taliban must hand over (or at the very least expel) ‘Usama bin Laden so he can stand trial. It must also stop hosting any terrorist groups and close terrorist training camps.

· Improve its human rights record, paying particular attention to its treatment of women and Afghanistan’s Shi’a population.

· Cooperate with U.S. efforts to eradicate narcotics.